Roger Edwin Rojas Ulo | GRADE: C–
According to IMF estimates, the Bolivian economy grew at a rate of 3.2% in 2022, and it is expected to contract to 1.8% in 2023. However, inflation has remained in check, at 4.74% in 2022 and a forecast of 4.9% for 2023.
The Banco Central de Bolivia (BCB) has kept the currency’s peg to the US dollar, which helped blunt inflation and often requires the BCB’s intervention in the exchange-rate market.
According to Ash Khayami, a country risk analyst at BMI, Fitch Solutions’ Country Risk and Industry Research service, nearly depleted international reserves and lack of transparency regarding those reserves likely will press inflation higher. “Several multilateral and bilateral loans and credit lines from development banks and agencies, as well as a law that allows the BCB to sell gold directly on the international market to boost reserve stocks, will provide some temporary support to reserve levels,” he says. “However, wide current account deficits in 2023 and 2024 and a costly currency peg will continue to threaten to spark a balance of payment crisis.”
